Sunday Thoughts

Before recording I scanned regime media for what is happening in Syria. It appears the government has not given them the narrative yet, so not much to go on. It does appear that the government has collapsed and now there is chaos in the country. This is a shocking development as no one seems to have prepared for the collapse of Assad government. That means what follows next is probably a bloody chaos, then a civil war and then a regional proxy war that could become a global war.

In the short term, expect to see millions of migrants flow out of Syria. Most will first try to make their way to Europe, but that is now more difficult due to the Ukraine war. Merkel’s millions went from Syria through Turkey into the caucuses and then through Ukraine. Of course, the Turks are happy to help them make their way into the Balkans. Then you have the American NGO’s who are busy working on their grant applications to fly Syrians to your neighborhood.

The bigger issue is having another Libya in the heart of the Middle East. When the usual suspects overthrew Gaddafi, the result was over a decade of war and chaos. That is most likely what we see in Syria, but this time with Iran, Russia, Israel, Turks and the Saudis directly involved. One must wonder if the whole point of this was to make it so the Trump administration is immediately trapped in the tar pit of Levantine politics.

The puzzle is why Erdogan went along with it. He is the biggest loser in this. He will now have to deal with a million more Syrian refugees, many of whom would like to kill him. In addition to Kurds, he will now have a hodgepodge of Islamist operating inside his borders, maybe thinking that he should follow Assad into exile. He is a snake, so he certainly has an angle, but even the cleverest snakes misjudge things and get their head chopped off.

The second biggest loser are the Iranians, for now at least, as they lose their transport corridor to Lebanon, which they used to supply Hezbollah. That could change as they figure out how to deal with the chaos in Syria. The biggest winner is Israel. Surprise! They will now steal more Syrian land, and the Iranians will not be able to restock Hezbollah. Of course, they could easily end up with an ISIS controlled state willing to wage unlimited war against the enemies of Mohamed.

Topics

• Syria
• Ukraine
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• France
• Romania
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